For those who still unaware of Alexa’s Ranking in India, Facebook overtook Orkut to secure its position at Number 4 leaving behind Orkut at Number 5. This article looks at the fight from an Indian perspective and finds out the sustainable growth of Facebook in India. Orkut is fighting the battle hard to leave no stone unturned, but are still not able to come with the right kind of innovation needed.

Before we begin the analysis; its time to get some facts straight. It’s a common myth that Facebook was launched much later than Orkut. However, the launch date of Orkut was Jan 2004 while that of Facebook was Feb 2004 (hardly one month difference). So the concept of Facebook gaining popularity in a matter of just one year is not so correct. Yes, the presence was felt much later in India and it gained popularity in a short time but the global launch dates were close. This article, for a change uses Google Insights (for those who are new to it…Try it out folks…You would love it http://www.google.com/insights/search ) for analysis of Facebook and Orkut (Probably, a lot of analysis has already gone in using Alexa and others)

I am not going to take any stance on Orkut and Facebook, but would like to present the true picture. This article is basically meant to shake up the underlying myths of many social networking users, be it the Orkut lovers or FB freaks. I decided two split the article into two parts, the first one for the Orkut Lovers (disheartening for FB users) and the second one to cheer up the FB freaks (some serious eye-openers for Orkut).

So you thought Facebook is GOD now…..!!!

-          World No.2 Alexa Ranking has still not surpassed the real test….

For those who keep themselves updated with Alexa Rankings globally, Facebook ranks No.2; comprehensively beating Orkut (Brazil) ranking no 42. So it’s a known fact now that Facebook is God and will be the best social networking site in future. However, before drawing inferences like these, lets have a look at past data (What Google Insights has to say)

Following Graph gives the popularity of Orkut on a scale of 0-100. Data is available from 2004 and that’s the exact year when both Orkut and FB were launched.

This graph shows some interesting results. Orkut attained its peak popularity in 2007 (hitting 100 on that scale) and did sustain it for a year. However, the sustainability did not last much and there were times when it touched values below 70 (after 2007). This suggests that people are looking in for a change with changing times and if you are not able to provide that, then you loose your peak popularity.

Let’s have a look on Facebook’s popularity.

The graph shows amazing results in terms of ever increasing popularity over the period of years. However, the concern to be addressed here is the peak time. FB has attained its peak lately and the real test lies in maintaining that peak. As we have seen in the case of Orkut, the popularity went down after one year of the peak time. Same could happen for Facebook as well. Therefore, to conclude that Facebook has become the king is wrong. In fact, the graphs above reveal that Orkut could attain its peak popularity in just three years of its launch, whereas it took almost five years for Facebook to do it. (I know, Orkut lovers would give a Thumbs UP here or as FB puts it “Like it” ). FB would become the king if it can show the results from this point of time (after 2009- So we have to wait and watch)

Next, I would like to present one important forecasted data that would justify the purpose of this section- Orkut can make a comeback, the game isn’t over yet. Following graph presents the forecasted data of Orkut’s popularity in the coming years:

According to the extrapolated data, Orkut would hit its peak again !. Though I personally agree to what many have to say about the New Orkut (its just a copy of FB) but this is what the data speaks. Moreover, it further confirms to my proposition about people look for change, when it comes to peak times. New Orkut might not have been an innovation, but all it has brought about is a change!

The peak times in India has similar story to share.

This map of India was once full dark blue (in 2007) indicating maximum search volume index, however it has faded and the light blue colors are now visible for the latest data available. This shows Orkut could not sustain the peak. The peak of 2007 (Orkut’s case) is clearly reflected in present (2009) map of India for Facebook. Following map illustrates it:

This dark blue color, clearly demonstrates the peak time for Facebook. The animated slider from 2004 would clearly indicate a move from faded blue to dark blue over a period of years. So we all need time to really assess FB and should not come to a conclusion right now.

How Facebook Takes the Lead?

What Orkut Needs to Learn from Facebook

This section would give some relief for the Facebook lovers. We all do admire FB’s pace and innovation and these factors have made it No.2 Website in the world.

Lets have a look at Facebook’s search volume index in the Globe

The latest data on Global Search Volume Index using Google Insights reveal that the search index volume is 5 in India. If the index is ranked, then India would rank 80 plus. However, Orkut Global Search volume reveals different figures.

This is an interesting case. With Orkut Search Volume Index being 17 (almost three times that of FB), its rank in India should have been almost three times that of Facebook. Surprisingly, Facebook ranks ahead of Orkut in India. So what does that indicate? FB has far low search index volume than Orkut and still is ahead in Alexa Rankings. This shows the TIME factor. The best online business today does not attack on MONEY, but looks for TIME. They demand maximum user time and build up applications in such a way that maximum time spending is ensured (chat, games, applications, quizzes). Facebook assumed that users in India have time to devote and they were true!.

So this would be a lesson for Orkut, in its coming new versions. The strategy should not be to increase the user base (it already has plenty), rather look for TIME factor (how to ensure that existing users spend more time).

One more strategy followed by Facebook was to invest in regions were Orkut had a strong hold. Lets look at the popularity (search volume) graph of Orkut and Facebook in India.

Compared to Figure-1 (global scenario), Orkut has lost its popularity in India (2009) and the difference is significant (20). This is essentially because of the excessive marketing of Facebook in India (introduction of FB in Indian Languages). It is also visible by the peak FB achieved in 2009 in India (Figure-9). However, the reverse never happened. Orkut did not attack the regions strongly held by Facebook. Those regions still remain dominated by FB and Orkut is far behind.

The concept of people demanding change is valid here too. Orkut should realize the potential regions where saturation has occurred (FB dominance) and try to aggressively invest in those regions to gain back its popularity.

@Readers: Treat this as the first analysis of the FB-Orkut War, more analysis using Alexa and other data source still to follow J